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Journal : Research in the Mathematical and Natural Sciences

Perbandingan Model ARIMA-RBF dan ARIMA-GARCH dalam Peramalan Time Series Inflasi Provinsi Gorontalo Awalia Emiro; Isran K Hasan; Novianita Achmad
Research in the Mathematical and Natural Sciences Vol. 2 No. 1 (2023): November 2022-April 2023
Publisher : Scimadly Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55657/rmns.v2i1.76

Abstract

A quantitative method that is observed sequentially from time to time is a time series. In the real word, problems often occur where one method is not able to solve the problem. This research used linear and nonlinear methods by combining the ARIMA-RBF anda ARIMA-GARCH models in forecasting, and then the two models were compared based on the MAPE value. This research used monthly data on inflation for housing, water, electricity, and other fuels from 2008 to 2020. The forecast results from the ARIMA-RBF model obtained the MAPE value of 7.5%, and the ARIMA-GARCH model obtained the MAPE value of 11.8%. thus, the best model for predicting inflation in this research was the ARIMA RBF model.
Model Antrian Pelayanan Terhadap Nasabah Bank BRI Menggunakan Petri Net dan Aljabar Max Plus Sri Ayu Nurdin; Lailany Yahya; Isran K Hasan; Nurwan Nurwan
Research in the Mathematical and Natural Sciences Vol. 2 No. 2 (2023): May-October 2023
Publisher : Scimadly Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55657/rmns.v2i2.106

Abstract

Petri net is one model representing transitions and places connected by arrows. Max Plus Algebra is an algebraic structure in which all sets of real numbers  are equipped with max (maximum) and (addition). This research created a Petri net model of the customer service system for Bank BRI and a Max Plus Algebra model related to time to minimize service time at Bank BRI. The result is periodic time or characteristic values and vector characteristics where the values and are . The value of this vector's characteristics becomes a periodic time, which only takes 2 days 3 hours during working hours to disburse money after the client's arrival.